Three divergent responses to societal collapse

Scene from The Road, 2010

No one in their right mind wants our truly extraordinary global civilization to collapse and yet some of the brightest thinkers are preoccupied with this as a near-term possibility. 

A 2023 literature review on societal collapse undertaken by Danilo Brozović begins with Edward Giddon’s account of the rise and fall of the Roman Empire published in 1776. Since then, Western scholars in particular have fretted almost continuously about the vulnerability of our modern world.

The prospect of overpopulation causing collapse came to the fore with Thomas Robert Malthus’ 1798 treatise and remains a core concern today. Fears of resource depletion were encapsulated in the 1972 Limits to Growth, with projections recalibrated in 2023 indicating that collapse of our current global system remains highly plausible.

According to Brozović, scholarly conversations have tended to focus on past collapses, general explanations of why collapse happens, alternatives to collapse, elaboration of fictional collapses, and discussion of climate change induced future societal collapse.

The potential breakdown of society has a powerful grip over our collective imagination. An investigation of 140 science fiction films produced between 1926 and 2019 reveals six collapse scenario archetypes.

There is “growth and decay” with Ridley Scott’s 1982 Blade Runner as one of the best expositions. Next we find “threats and new hopes” captured in Christopher Nolan’s 2014 science fiction epic, Interstellar. I am assuming that most of you are familiar with these films and that no explanation is needed.

The 1979 classic, Mad Max, is a good example of the “wasteworlds” archetype and this movie franchise was most recently recreated in 2024 with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Another example is the 2009 movie The Road based on the book by Cormac McCarthy (see picture above).

Two more archetypes are ‘the powers that be” and “disarray.” Orwell’s 1984 epitomizes the former portraying a world in which individuals have limited control over their own lives. For the latter, Alfonso Cuarón’s 2006 film Children of Men elucidates a daunting and chaotic picture of humanity facing extinction.

Finally, there is “inversion” where humans find their dominance undermined by either aliens (A Quiet Place), technology (Terminator) or another species (Planet of the Apes).

Our preoccupation with, and fictional representations of, collapse explain in part why many dismiss such thinking as doom-mongering or science fiction. Nevertheless, a growing body of scientists are addressing this concern and recently “the number of published articles using climate change and societal collapse language has been dramatically increasing.”

Here are three examples of authentic and insightful commentaries that take the prospect of collapse very seriously. The three books discussed here present divergent views on how best to respond.

William MacAskill and Longtermism

The Oxford philosopher, William MacAskill, is a proponent of longtermism in his 2022 book “What we owe the Future - A One Million Year View.” His ethical worldview argues that our moral priority should be to positively influence the long-term future through the pursuit of effective altruism.

MacAskill discusses three central threats to civilization and argues that we should seek to minimize existential risks. First, he explores human extinction as a result of asteroid strikes, engineered pathogens and global nuclear war.

Second, he focuses on the possibility of societal collapse due to global catastrophes including climate change and fossil fuel depletion.

Third, he addresses concerns around stagnation of modern civilization due a range of factors including stalled technological progress or declining fertility rates.

On top of this, MacAskill examines the implications of artificial intelligence and dangers associated with humanity lock-in to value systems, moral views and ideologies that have “bad” implications for future generations. 

MacAskill appears on the Daily Show in 2022 to talk about this new book.

MacAskill makes a strong case for optimism and believes collapse can be averted if we take appropriate action. For example, he argues that the most important decision people make is their career choice. Making the right decision about which career to pursue can have a very positive impact.

He calls for a movement to promote longtermism that will shift humanity onto a better trajectory and avoid collapse. For MacAskill, the sum of our ethically driven, good moral decisions will work to safeguard civilization.

This approach appeals to global elites (Bill Gates and others love his book) since the emphasis on philanthropy supports maintenance of the status quo and has an overall feel good factor. Indeed, MacAskill donates 50 percent of his income to philanthropic causes and he is happy as a result (see video).

Jem Bendell on Breaking Together

Jem Bendell left his role as a full professor at the University of Cumbria in the summer of 2023 to start a regenerative agriculture school in Indonesia - a rare example of someone walking the talk.

His writings began to attract a lot of attention from 2018 onwards with publication of an essay on "Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy.” The paper was initially rejected by a journal and then described as wrongheaded by senior climate scientist, Michael E. Mann. In writing this paper Bendell wanted to provide people with an “opportunity to reassess their work and life in the face of an inevitable near-term social collapse due to climate change.”

He then embarked on a research journey that led to his 2023 book “Breaking Together - A Freedom-Loving Response to Collapse.” His central argument is that economic, monetary, energy, biosphere, climate, food and societal collapses are already well-underway. A lot of evidence is presented to support this claim.

For example, if we look at the UN’s human development index we can see that it stopped rising for economically advanced economies around 2019. More recently, I would add that progress with the Sustainable Development Goals appears to have stalled with 17% of the goals regressing and 18% stagnant as of 2024 due conflicts, trade tensions and climate change. 

Bendell launches his book in Glastobury in 2023.

Bendell’s response is to advocate for wider acknowledgement of our on-going collapse and on the need to embrace this opportunity to break together (rather than tear each other apart).

He calls on people to pursue six freedoms during, or as a result of, collapse. These are freedom to know, freedom from progress, freedom from banking, freedom in nature, freedom to collapse and grow, and freedom from fake green globalists (see his explanation in the video). 

Bendell presents a fascinating mix of eco-liberatianism and doomism, or what he describes as “the Doomster way.”

Andrew Boyd wants a better catastrophe

Writer, career activist and creative campaign veteran, Andrew Boyd, has put together an existential manual for tragic optimists, can-do pessimists and compassionate doomers in his 2023 book “I want a better catastrophe - Navigating the climate crisis with grief, hope and gallows humour.”

Last month I wrote about how he and Stephan Duncombe proposed the idea of ethical spectacles. They are one tool in the Beautiful Trouble toolbox developed by an international network of artist-activist-trainers helping grassroots movements become more creative and effective.

A night of stand-up tragedy with Andrew Boyd.

Boyd’s 2023 book targets activists already seeking to address the negative impacts of capitalism and climate crisis as it unfolds.

He presents interviews with leading thinkers on our current predicament and an intriguing flowchart to help navigate the climate crisis exploring all potential avenues for hope, or lack thereof. There is a pdf version for those who wish to share it more widely.

His main argument is that there are a range of potential catastrophes and some are better than others. For instance, there may be catastrophes from which society can recover and others that represent a point of no return.

He asks that we fight against the climate change with courage, kindness and wise planning to ensure we get the “least terrible and most compassionate catastrophe still available.”

Boyd understands how activism can bring about positive change and why it sometimes fails to do so. At the heart of his writing is an ethical drive to create a better world (or a least a better ending).

Can we opt out of societal collapse?

If you have read this far, I can imagine a diversity of reactions. Clearly, we have been obsessed with collapse for a very long time but it seems that the intensity of concern is increasing.

Many of you will be tempted to dismiss this concern. After all, “doomism” never motivated anyone (or not enough people) to act and negativism makes us feel powerless.

But perhaps as Bendell suggests being a “doomster” is the new cool because it shows you understand our collective predicament and you are willing to act on that knowledge. 

Another reaction could be to argue that there cannot realistically be positive outcomes from near-term collapse and the immense suffering that would result as a consequence.

In response, it is clear, as MacAskill convincingly argues, that greater awareness of threats facing our civilization might ensure we change trajectory and try to better navigate them. How we respond to catastrophe is also critically important and as Boyd contends this response needs to be ethical, fair, just, kind and wise.

Personally, like most of you, I would prefer to avoid societal collapse altogether. The fall of civilization is very much a Western preoccupation and I am conscious that the perspectives shared are from a Scotsman, an Englishman and an American.

There are many parts of the world where near-term collapse is already very real. For instance, the fagile state index lists a large number of countries, mainly in Africa and Asia, demonstrating fragility (lack of cohesion, on-going conflicts, economic decline, problems with political legitimacy, demographic pressures, etc.).

Moreover, the 2023 Fragile State Index report revealed how war in Europe led to inflation, fuel riots, and food insecurity in vulnerable countries around the world. It exposed how “the Great Powers, whether that be China, Russia, or Western democracies, may be more fragile than we think.”

That does sound like a world in disarray. Is this an aberration or the shape of things to come?